India's Share in OPEC Increases Owing to US Sanctions on Russia

India's crude oil import patterns underwent significant changes in 2024, with OPEC's share increasing for the first time in nine years to 51.5%, up from 49.6% in 2023. This marks a shift from the long-term decline in OPEC’s dominance in India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer. At the same time, Russia maintained its position as India’s top oil supplier, accounting for 36% of total imports. However, new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil producers and tankers are expected to reduce Russia’s market share in 2025, disrupting supplies to both India and China.

India imported an average of 4.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in 2024, a 4.3% increase from the previous year. The Middle East regained prominence in India’s crude import basket, with its share rising to a 22-month high of 52% in December 2024. This surge comes as Indian refiners ramped up purchases of Middle Eastern grades to offset a decline in Russian supplies. Despite this, Russia continued to dominate India’s import list, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

The increased demand for Middle Eastern oil is driven by several factors. Reduced availability of discounted Russian crude due to Western sanctions and logistical constraints has made Middle Eastern barrels a more viable option for Indian refiners. Additionally, India's crude oil sourcing strategy reflects its ongoing efforts to diversify suppliers and secure cost-effective energy solutions amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

OPEC’s rising share in India’s imports highlights a recalibration in the country’s energy strategy, as it adapts to tightening Russian supplies and growing demand for Middle Eastern crude. As the global oil trade realigns, the Middle East is set to play a more pivotal role in India’s efforts to meet its increasing energy needs efficiently and sustainably.