The Path to Net Zero Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050

In an exclusive interaction with Industry Outlook, Kishor Nair, CEO – IPP Business, Avaada Group, shares his insights on the current state of global carbon emissions, examining key trends that underscore both progress and challenges in achieving net-zero targets. Kishor is an accomplished leader in the energy sector, bringing nearly four decades in Business Development, Project Management, and Strategic Planning. Under his leadership, Avaada Energy has grown to over 4 GW in operational capacity, with Kishor playing a pivotal role in policy advocacy and infrastructure projects across industry giants like NTPC, Bechtel, and Reliance.

What is the current global landscape regarding carbon emissions, and what recent trends indicate progress or setbacks in achieving net-zero targets?

The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted a decade-long trend of rising global GHG emissions. However, emissions rebounded post-pandemic, reaching 53.8 Gt CO2eq in 2022, a 1.4% increase from the previous year. According to the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2023, emissions in all sectors except transportation have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. This rebound highlights the resilience of carbon-intensive activities and underscores the need for more aggressive mitigation strategies. Regionally, emissions have slowed in major contributors like the US and Europe but have increased in Asian countries. This divergence indicates that while some regions are progressing, others are still on a growth trajectory, complicating global efforts to peak emissions by 2025.

Recent technological advancements and policy measures offer some hope. The rapid deployment of renewable energy, improvements in energy efficiency, and innovations in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are critical to bending the emissions curve. However, the path to net zero is fraught with challenges. The geopolitical landscape, economic uncertainties, and varying national commitments create a complex environment for achieving global climate goals. The upcoming COP29 conference will be crucial in galvanizing international cooperation and enhancing national commitments to bridge the emissions gap.

From the perspective of renewable power generators, which key sectors contribute the most to carbon emissions, and what strategies are being implemented to reduce their carbon footprint?

Electricity and Heat Generation: Electricity and heat generation remain the largest contributors to global GHG emissions due to their dependence on coal, oil, and natural gas. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes reached a record 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2023, marking a 1.1% increase over the previous year.

Industrial Production: Industrial production, including on-site energy generation and emissions from the transformation processes of chemicals, metals, and minerals, is the second-largest contributor to global emissions. The sector’s emissions have been rising, driven by increased industrial activity in emerging economies.

Transportation: Globally, transportation accounts for 20 percent of emissions. Cars, trucks, ships, airplanes, all primarily use petroleum-based fuels that and release carbon dioxide. Electric vehicles have gained popularity in recent years but are still a small percentage of total vehicles used and do not serve as an alternative for long-haul transport yet.

Electrification and Heat Pumps: The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and the adoption of heat pumps for heating and cooling have significantly reduced emissions in the transportation and residential sectors. The IEA highlights that the increased use of EVs and heat pumps has contributed to a substantial reduction in energy-related emissions.

How are renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro being integrated into national grids, and how are challenges like grid stability and management and infrastructure limitations being addressed in association with this transition?

The integration of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro into national grids is a complex yet essential process for achieving sustainable energy goals. This transition involves addressing several technical and infrastructural challenges to ensure grid stability and efficient management. Siting is crucial for maximizing energy generation output from renewable projects. Often, these projects are located in remote areas with abundant natural resources, necessitating extensive transmission infrastructure to connect them to the national grid. The Indian government has allocated ₹2.44 lakh crore (approximately US$30 billion) to build transmission lines connecting renewable energy projects in remote locations such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and other states to the national grid. The integration of renewable energy sources requires a fundamental rethinking of grid operations. Legacy power distribution systems were designed for a more predictable energy generation landscape. Renewable energy introduces higher volatility due to its dependence on weather conditions, necessitating investments in smarter infrastructure. Grid operators must meticulously plan their operations based on the availability of renewable energy generators, those in the pipeline, energy demand and supply data, and variability due to weather changes and potential asset failures. This requires the adoption of advanced technologies for real-time monitoring and management.

Policies that incentivize the adoption of clean energy technologies, carbon pricing, and subsidies for renewable projects are essential. Additionally, regulatory frameworks must evolve to support the dynamic nature of renewable energy integration. The transition to renewable energy is not without challenges. Network inadequacy, characterized by insufficient physical grid capacity to accommodate supply and demand connections, remains a significant hurdle. Moreover, the variability and unpredictability of renewable energy generation can lead to grid instability if not managed effectively. However, the opportunities are immense. The rapid deployment of renewable energy technologies, coupled with advancements in grid management and storage solutions, provides a pathway to a sustainable energy future. The next decade will be critical in determining the success of these efforts, and continued innovation and investment are paramount.

What role do energy efficiency measures and technological innovations play in the journey toward carbon neutrality, and can you provide notable examples of successful implementations?

Energy efficiency measures and technological innovations are pivotal in our journey toward carbon neutrality. These strategies not only reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also enhance the overall efficiency and sustainability of energy systems. Energy efficiency plays a central role in reducing emissions. For instance, the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs) has significantly mitigated the rise in GHG emissions. Without these technologies, emissions would have increased by approximately 2,700 Mt over the past 4-5 years. EVs are a prime example of energy-efficient transportation. Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles convert only 20-30% of the fuel into motion, with the rest lost as heat and friction. In contrast, EVs utilize nearly 90% of the energy to move the vehicle, making them highly efficient. The global shift to EVs is crucial for reducing tailpipe emissions and improving energy efficiency in the transportation sector. If the world could immediately adopt energy-efficiency measures, it could reduce emissions by 3.5 Gt CO2-eq compared to 2017 levels. For example, the coal and lignite sector in India has demonstrated the cumulative effect of such measures.

Over the past three years, Coal and Lignite Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) in India have adopted energy-efficient measures, including LED lights, star-rated appliances, energy-efficient pumps, and EVs. Energy audits reveal that these PSUs have achieved total energy savings of 14.34 crore kWh, translating to ₹107.6 crores. More importantly, every unit of energy saved contributes to reducing overall emissions. The development of smart grids with real-time monitoring capabilities is essential for managing energy demand and supply efficiently.

In what ways do government policies like feed-in tariffs (FiTs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) shape the path to net-zero emissions, and how have these frameworks effectively encouraged the rapid deployment of renewable technologies?

The role of government policies like feed-in tariffs (FiTs) and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) is critical in shaping the path to net-zero emissions. These frameworks have been instrumental in fostering the rapid deployment of renewable technologies, thereby advancing our sustainability goals. FiTs provide guaranteed pricing and long-term purchase agreements for renewable energy producers, ensuring financial stability and attracting investment in renewable projects. By offering favorable rates, FiTs lower the entry barriers for new technologies, allowing them to scale and reduce costs through economies of scale and technological advancements. Countries with robust FiT policies have seen significant increases in renewable energy capacity, contributing to substantial CO2 emission reductions. Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) mandate that a certain percentage of electricity must come from renewable sources, creating a stable and predictable demand for renewable energy. These standards incentivize utilities and energy producers to invest in renewable energy infrastructure, driving technological innovation and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. By providing clear targets and timelines, RPS policies help renewable energy companies plan their investments and operations more effectively, ensuring a steady transition to clean energy.

Although e-reverse auctions were designed to enhance competition, unrealistic bids have led to project delays and cancellations, undermining the renewable energy sector's growth. FiTs and RPS provide a more balanced approach by offering predictable revenue streams and fostering a supportive regulatory environment, mitigating the risks associated with aggressive bidding strategies

Looking ahead, what emerging technologies or practices hold the most promise for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, and how might they revolutionize our approach to sustainability?

Perovskite solar cells are a game-changer in the renewable energy sector. These cells have already demonstrated power conversion efficiencies (PCE) exceeding 33% in laboratory settings, compared to the 25% peak efficiency of traditional silicon-based cells. Their potential for higher efficiencies combined with lower manufacturing costs will significantly reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), accelerating the adoption of solar energy on a global scale. The deployment of highly efficient perovskite solar cells will drive substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals. Hydrogen fuel cells are essential for decarbonizing sectors like shipping and aviation, which are challenging to electrify using batteries due to their high energy density and lightweight nature. Hydrogen fuel cells emit only water vapor, making them a clean alternative to fossil fuels and crucial for reducing the carbon footprint of transportation. Investment in hydrogen production, storage, and distribution infrastructure will catalyze a shift towards hydrogen as a primary energy carrier, supporting the broader transition to a low-carbon economy.