According to the rating agency Crisil, the GDP of India is predicted to grow by 11 per cent in FY2022. The projection is in accordance with the government’s own projection for the coming fiscal, as spelt out in the Economic Survey 2020-21.
“Crisil expects India’s GDP growth to rebound to 11 percent in FY22, after an estimated 8 percent contraction in FY21, as four drivers – people learning to live with the new normal,
flattening of the COVID-19 affliction curve, rollout of vaccinations, and investment-focused government spending – converge,” the agency said.
Addressing the media in a webinar, Crisil's Chief Economist DK Joshi said while the COVID-19 pandemic's stubborn hold remains a potential risk, growth is expected to be more broad-based in the second half of FY22.
“The first half is likely to be characterized by base-effect-driven recovery, amid challenges of resurgence in COVID-19 cases. The second half may be marked by a more broad-based pick-up in activity amid vaccination roll-out and rising herd immunity domestically and supported by stronger anticipated global growth,” Joshi said.
He said the economy is likely to touch the pre-pandemic level only by the second quarter of FY22. “By the end of fiscal 2022, GDP will only be about 2 percent higher than fiscal 2020 level and about 10 percent below its pre-pandemic trend level,” he added.
