APRIL 20248TOP STORIESIMF: UPWARD TRAJECTORY FOR INDIA'S GDP GROWTHThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth projection for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fiscal year 2024/25, now expecting an expansion of 6.8 percent. It has issued an additional forecast of 6.5 percent growth rate for the subsequent year. It is this adjustment that was announced in the World Economic Outlook during the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings, there is a 0.3 percentage point rise from the previous estimate in January 2024. While amidst the COVID-19 supply chain disruptions and geopolitical disputes like Russian aggression in Ukraine, the world economy has proven to be surprisingly strong. The positive sustained growth and the inflation stabilizing to target levels have confounded the predictions of stagflation and global depression. According to the IMF, the global output growth is projected to reach 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025 which constitutes a significant recovery from the sluggish performance of the previous year when it was just 2.3 percent.The country's deceleration in growth from 7.8 percent of the previous year is commonly seen as a result of the implementation of tighter monetary and fiscal policies, the main aim of which is to bring down the inflation rate. On a press briefing, the IMF's Daniel Leigh revealed that inflation is expected to hit 4.6 percent this year and, 4.2 percent of next year. Nevertheless, the Leigh pointed out that the private demand can intensify the projected growth than the actual outturn because of the revised figures. It is this re-direction in India's growth path that can be attested to the delicate balance between policy actions, economic performance and global factors, thereby indicating the need for continuous monitoring and adjustment so as to achieve long run sustainability and inclusivity of the Indian economy in the midst of constantly changing global environment. The Indian trade deficit in merchandise trade decreased to a 11-month-long low of $15.60 billion in the month of March, compared to the previous year as per the government data revealed on Monday. As per the survey of economists had come up with a deficit figure for March pegged at $18.55 billion. In the month of March, including export and import of merchandise reached $41.68 billion and $57.28 billion respectively. The exports of merchandise last month were $41.40 billion, but the imports were $60.11 billion in the same period. In contrast, exports of services stood at $28.54 billion in March, and imports were $15.84 billion. In February, the export value of services was $32.35 billion and the import was at $15.39 billion.The statistics speak for themselves, as India's exports are moving into a 'positive cycle,' according to the Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal. The outbound shipments standing on $40 billion for the second month for a year that ended March is similar to the previous fiscal year. The export of the merchandise in FY24 displayed a dip of 3.11percent and amounted to $437.06 billion. FY24 imports decrease by 5.41 percent from $677.24 billion to $648.70 billion. The merchandise export growth is led by electronic goods, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, iron ore, cotton yarn/fabs/made-ups, handlooms products and ceramic products and glassware in 2023-24. INDIA'S MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS, EXPORTS SURGE
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